The head of the International Energy Agency has cautioned that European nations may face a shortage of jet fuel in a matter of weeks, leading to a significant reduction in flights for the continent's airlines and carriers flying to Europe.
As the global price of jet fuel rose from approximately $99 per barrel in late February to as much as $209 per barrel at the start of April, many airlines have already hiked checked bag fees or imposed fuel surcharges.
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Air Canada announced that it will be temporarily suspending its flights to New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport from June 1 to Oct. 25 in order to reduce fuel costs due to the ongoing conflict.
Similarly, other airlines such as United, Delta, Air France-KLM, SAS, Philippine Airlines, and Cathay Pacific have also cut down on routes and may either raise ticket prices or have plans to do so if the war affects oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
Consumers have the ability to make choices that can impact the amount of their travel budget spent on airfares and fees, even as prices continue to increase.
“It’s very hard for the airlines to make predictions in this environment, so they’re going to be conservative, and that’s why it’s likely that their prices will remain elevated for some time until things really stabilize,” says Shye Gilad, a former airline captain who now teaches at Georgetown University’s business school.
According to travel experts, it is riskier for consumers to wait and see if the war will end before purchasing airline tickets this year, particularly as the conflict persists and peak travel seasons like summer approach.
“Presuming there is a lasting ceasefireor better yet, peace agreementit will take a few months for normal levels of jet fuel production and delivery to resume,” airline industry analyst Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, says.
Iran's announcement on Saturday to retract its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, along with President Donald Trump's determination to uphold a US blockade of Iranian ports, highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the resumption of oil flow from the Persian Gulf. This uncertainty also impacts the potential for a reduction in price pressure on airlines and their passengers.
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Most airlines in North America charge for checked bags and seat selection, in addition to not offering refunds or travel credits to passengers who have Basic Economy tickets if they fail to cancel their trips within 24 hours of booking.
While specific policies may differ, opting for a Standard Economy ticket typically offers greater flexibility, as stated by Harteveldt. Purchasing a refundable ticket at a higher cost initially can be beneficial as it allows you to cancel and rebook at a lower price in case of significant price fluctuations," according to Gilad.
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According to travel experts, it is generally recommended to book international flights about two to five months in advance and domestic trips about three to six weeks ahead in order to obtain the lowest airfare. Gilad mentioned that last-minute bookings and other circumstances that usually result in higher prices are expected to continue increasing.